Activity

g., whether coral was winning or losing) were considered. For example, coral holobionts losing the competition with turf algae had higher Bacteroidetes-to-Firmicutes ratios and an elevated abundance of genes involved in bacterial growth and division. These changes were similar to trends observed in the obese human gut microbiome, where overfeeding of the microbiome creates a dysbiosis detrimental to the long-term health of the metazoan host. Together these results show that there are specific biogeochemical changes at coral-turf algal interfaces that predict the competitive outcomes between holobionts and are consistent with algal exudates feeding coral-associated microbes.Although the backlog of untested sexual assault kits in the United States is starting to be addressed, many municipalities are opting for selective testing of samples within a kit, where only the most probative samples are tested. We use data from the San Francisco Police Department Criminalistics Laboratory, which tests all samples but also collects information on the samples flagged by sexual assault forensic examiners as most probative, to build a standard machine learning model that predicts (based on covariates gleaned from sexual assault kit questionnaires) which samples are most probative. This model is embedded within an optimization framework that selects which samples to test from each kit to maximize the Combined DNA Index System (CODIS) yield (i.e., the number of kits that generate at least one DNA profile for the criminal DNA database) subject to a budget constraint. Our analysis predicts that, relative to a policy that tests only the samples deemed probative by the sexual assault forensic examiners, the proposed policy increases the CODIS yield by 45.4% without increasing the cost. Full testing of all samples has a slightly lower cost-effectiveness than the selective policy based on forensic examiners, but more than doubles the yield. In over half of the sexual assaults, a sample was not collected during the forensic medical exam from the body location deemed most probative by the machine learning model. Our results suggest that electronic forensic records coupled with machine learning and optimization models could enhance the effectiveness of criminal investigations of sexual assaults.Determinantal point processes (DPPs) have recently become popular tools for modeling the phenomenon of negative dependence, or repulsion, in data. However, our understanding of an analogue of a classical parametric statistical theory is rather limited for this class of models. In this work, we investigate a parametric family of Gaussian DPPs with a clearly interpretable effect of parametric modulation on the observed points. We show that parameter modulation impacts the observed points by introducing directionality in their repulsion structure, and the principal directions correspond to the directions of maximal (i.e., the most long-ranged) dependency. This model readily yields a viable alternative to principal component analysis (PCA) as a dimension reduction tool that favors directions along which the data are most spread out. This methodological contribution is complemented by a statistical analysis of a spiked model similar to that employed for covariance matrices as a framework to study PCA. These theoretical investigations unveil intriguing questions for further examination in random matrix theory, stochastic geometry, and related topics.Climate engineering-the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the Earth’s climate system-is a set of technologies for reducing climate-change impacts and risks. It is controversial and raises novel governance challenges [T. C. Schelling, Climatic Change, 33, 303-307 (1996); J. Virgoe, Climatic Change, 95, 103-119 (2008)]. We focus on the strategic implications of solar geoengineering. When countries engineer the climate, conflict can arise because different countries might prefer different temperatures. This would result in too much geoengineering the country with the highest preference for geoengineering cools the planet beyond what is socially optimal at the expense of the others-a theoretical possibility termed “free-driving” [M. L. find more Weitzman, Scand. J. Econ., 117, 1049-1068 (2015)]. This study is an empirical test of this hypothesis. We carry out an economic laboratory experiment based on a public “good or bad” game. We find compelling evidence of free-driving global geoengineering exceeds the socially efficient level and leads to welfare losses. We also evaluate the possibility of counteracting the geoengineering efforts of others. Results show that countergeoengineering generates high payoff inequality as well as heavy welfare losses, resulting from both strategic and behavioral factors. Finally, we compare strategic behavior in bilateral and multilateral settings. We find that welfare deteriorates even more under multilateralism when countergeoengineering is a possibility. These results have general implications for governing global good or bad commons.Communication and oscillatory synchrony between distributed neural populations are believed to play a key role in multiple cognitive and neural functions. These interactions are mediated by long-range myelinated axonal fiber bundles, collectively termed as white matter. While traditionally considered to be static after development, white matter properties have been shown to change in an activity-dependent way through learning and behavior-a phenomenon known as white matter plasticity. In the central nervous system, this plasticity stems from oligodendroglia, which form myelin sheaths to regulate the conduction of nerve impulses across the brain, hence critically impacting neural communication. We here shift the focus from neural to glial contribution to brain synchronization and examine the impact of adaptive, activity-dependent changes in conduction velocity on the large-scale phase synchronization of neural oscillators. Using a network model based on primate large-scale white matter neuroanatomy, our computational and mathematical results show that such plasticity endows white matter with self-organizing properties, where conduction delay statistics are autonomously adjusted to ensure efficient neural communication. Our analysis shows that this mechanism stabilizes oscillatory neural activity across a wide range of connectivity gain and frequency bands, making phase-locked states more resilient to damage as reflected by diffuse decreases in connectivity. Critically, our work suggests that adaptive myelination may be a mechanism that enables brain networks with a means of temporal self-organization, resilience, and homeostasis.